Each row is a detected lead-lag signal — a tracked wallet traded on Polymarket before Kalshi's price moved to match. Gap = how far Kalshi lagged at signal time. All times are Pacific Time (PT).
| Signal Time (PT) | Wallet | Layer | Market | Side | PM Price | K Price | Gap | Size | Catchup |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-21 14:15 | 0xed19489c… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.840 | 0.880 | -0.040 | $6 | 1m |
| 2026-06-21 14:06 | 0x97520e8e… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? |
SELL | 0.500 | 0.640 | -0.140 | $0 | 11m |
| 2026-06-21 14:02 | 0xaf15bf51… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? |
SELL | 0.510 | 0.640 | -0.130 | $0 | 11m |
| 2026-06-21 14:02 | 0xac4a1fab… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? |
SELL | 0.510 | 0.640 | -0.130 | $51 | 11m |
| 2026-06-21 13:36 | 0x97520e8e… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? |
SELL | 0.500 | 0.640 | -0.140 | $0 | 107m |
| 2026-06-21 13:31 | 0xaf15bf51… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? |
SELL | 0.500 | 0.600 | -0.100 | $0 | 583m |
| 2026-06-21 13:31 | 0xac4a1fab… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? |
SELL | 0.510 | 0.600 | -0.090 | $40 | 583m |
| 2026-06-21 13:16 | 0x97520e8e… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? |
SELL | 0.500 | 0.630 | -0.130 | $0 | 593m |
| 2026-06-21 13:16 | 0x97520e8e… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? |
SELL | 0.500 | 0.630 | -0.130 | $0 | 593m |
| 2026-06-21 13:14 | 0xed19489c… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.860 | 0.890 | -0.030 | $84 | 1m |
| 2026-06-21 13:14 | 0xed19489c… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.860 | 0.890 | -0.030 | $50 | 1m |
| 2026-06-21 13:13 | 0xed19489c… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.860 | 0.890 | -0.030 | $4 | 1m |
| 2026-06-21 13:10 | 0xaf15bf51… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? |
SELL | 0.500 | 0.630 | -0.130 | $0 | 603m |
| 2026-06-21 13:10 | 0xac4a1fab… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? |
SELL | 0.530 | 0.630 | -0.100 | $49 | 72m |
| 2026-06-21 13:01 | 0x97520e8e… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? |
SELL | 0.520 | 0.630 | -0.110 | $0 | 82m |
| 2026-06-21 12:59 | 0xaf15bf51… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? |
SELL | 0.520 | 0.610 | -0.090 | $0 | 82m |
| 2026-06-21 12:59 | 0xac4a1fab… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? |
SELL | 0.530 | 0.610 | -0.080 | $7 | 82m |
| 2026-06-21 12:52 | 0x97520e8e… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? |
SELL | 0.520 | 0.630 | -0.110 | $0 | 82m |
| 2026-06-21 12:52 | 0x97520e8e… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? |
SELL | 0.520 | 0.630 | -0.110 | $0 | 82m |
| 2026-06-21 12:51 | 0x97520e8e… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? |
SELL | 0.520 | 0.630 | -0.110 | $0 | 92m |
| 2026-06-21 12:48 | 0xaf15bf51… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? |
SELL | 0.510 | 0.590 | -0.080 | $0 | 623m |
| 2026-06-21 12:48 | 0xac4a1fab… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? |
SELL | 0.530 | 0.590 | -0.060 | $53 | 92m |
| 2026-06-21 12:38 | 0x21ffd2b7… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? |
SELL | 0.490 | 0.530 | -0.040 | $6 | 67m |
| 2026-06-21 12:35 | 0x7e80049e… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? |
SELL | 0.530 | 0.580 | -0.050 | $16 | 1m |
| 2026-06-21 12:34 | 0x21ffd2b7… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? |
SELL | 0.500 | 0.530 | -0.030 | $32 | 67m |
| 2026-06-21 12:33 | 0x7e80049e… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? |
SELL | 0.530 | 0.580 | -0.050 | $13 | 1m |
| 2026-06-21 12:33 | 0x21ffd2b7… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? |
SELL | 0.500 | 0.530 | -0.030 | $50 | 67m |
| 2026-06-21 12:31 | 0x97520e8e… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? |
SELL | 0.520 | 0.580 | -0.060 | $0 | 1m |
| 2026-06-21 12:31 | 0x97520e8e… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? |
SELL | 0.520 | 0.580 | -0.060 | $0 | 1m |
| 2026-06-21 12:30 | 0x97520e8e… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? |
SELL | 0.520 | 0.580 | -0.060 | $0 | 1m |
| 2026-06-21 12:21 | 0x21ffd2b7… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? |
SELL | 0.490 | 0.520 | -0.030 | $8 | 1m |
| 2026-06-21 12:21 | 0x7e80049e… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? |
SELL | 0.490 | 0.520 | -0.030 | $49 | 1m |
| 2026-06-21 12:13 | 0xb687f004… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T1
will-1-fed-rate-cut-happen-in-2026 Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.140 | 0.187 | -0.047 | $81 | 0m |
| 2026-06-21 12:00 | 0xac4a1fab… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T1
will-1-fed-rate-cut-happen-in-2026 Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.140 | 0.186 | -0.046 | $7 | 1m |
| 2026-06-21 11:50 | 0x97520e8e… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? |
BUY | 0.550 | 0.500 | +0.050 | $1 | 47m |
| 2026-06-21 11:49 | 0xb40e8967… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? |
BUY | 0.530 | 0.500 | +0.030 | $35 | 47m |
| 2026-06-21 10:52 | 0x54b56146… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.850 | 0.890 | -0.040 | $210 | — |
| 2026-06-21 10:49 | 0x54b56146… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.850 | 0.890 | -0.040 | $14 | 17m |
| 2026-06-21 10:49 | 0x54b56146… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.850 | 0.890 | -0.040 | $4 | 17m |
| 2026-06-21 10:49 | 0x54b56146… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.850 | 0.890 | -0.040 | $5 | 150m |
| 2026-06-21 10:48 | 0x54b56146… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.850 | 0.890 | -0.040 | $5 | 17m |
| 2026-06-21 10:47 | 0x54b56146… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.850 | 0.890 | -0.040 | $1 | 150m |
| 2026-06-21 10:46 | 0x54b56146… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.850 | 0.890 | -0.040 | $85 | 17m |
| 2026-06-21 10:46 | 0x54b56146… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.850 | 0.890 | -0.040 | $7 | 17m |
| 2026-06-21 10:45 | 0x54b56146… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.850 | 0.890 | -0.040 | $5 | 17m |
| 2026-06-21 10:45 | 0x54b56146… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.850 | 0.890 | -0.040 | $1 | 150m |
| 2026-06-21 10:45 | 0x54b56146… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.850 | 0.890 | -0.040 | $2 | 150m |
| 2026-06-21 10:44 | 0x54b56146… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.850 | 0.890 | -0.040 | $1 | — |
| 2026-06-21 10:43 | 0x54b56146… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.850 | 0.890 | -0.040 | $83 | — |
| 2026-06-21 10:28 | 0xb687f004… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T1
will-1-fed-rate-cut-happen-in-2026 Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.140 | 0.187 | -0.047 | $27 | 1m |