Each row is a detected lead-lag signal — a tracked wallet traded on Polymarket before Kalshi's price moved to match. Gap = how far Kalshi lagged at signal time. All times are Pacific Time (PT).
| Signal Time (PT) | Wallet | Layer | Market | Side | PM Price | K Price | Gap | Size | Catchup |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-04 23:17 | 0xf50543a8… | L1 |
KXCBDISRAEL-26AUG31-HOLD
will-the-bank-of-israel-hold-at-the-august-2026-meeting Will the Bank of Israel hold at the August 2026 meeting? |
SELL | 0.730 | 0.790 | -0.060 | $7 | 0m |
| 2026-08-04 23:16 | 0xf50543a8… | L1 |
KXCBDISRAEL-26AUG31-HOLD
will-the-bank-of-israel-hold-at-the-august-2026-meeting Will the Bank of Israel hold at the August 2026 meeting? |
SELL | 0.730 | 0.790 | -0.060 | $53 | 0m |
| 2026-08-04 23:16 | 0xf50543a8… | L1 |
KXCBDISRAEL-26AUG31-HOLD
will-the-bank-of-israel-hold-at-the-august-2026-meeting Will the Bank of Israel hold at the August 2026 meeting? |
SELL | 0.760 | 0.790 | -0.030 | $149 | 0m |
| 2026-08-04 23:05 | 0xd8c18c73… | L1 |
KXFARAGEOUTREFORM-26JUL-JAN01
nigel-farage-out-as-reform-uk-leader-in-2026-20260622233131512 Nigel Farage out as Reform UK leader in 2026? |
BUY | 0.268 | 0.190 | +0.078 | $21 | — |
| 2026-08-04 23:03 | 0xd8c18c73… | L1 |
KXFARAGEOUTREFORM-26JUL-JAN01
nigel-farage-out-as-reform-uk-leader-in-2026-20260622233131512 Nigel Farage out as Reform UK leader in 2026? |
BUY | 0.260 | 0.190 | +0.070 | $10 | — |
| 2026-08-04 23:02 | 0xffeafb3a… | L1 |
KXGOOGLESEARCH-MOV27-ODY
will-the-odyssey-be-the-1-searched-movie-on-google-this-year-20260730181459216 Will The Odyssey be the #1 searched movie on Google this year? |
SELL | 0.420 | 0.450 | -0.030 | $3 | 0m |
| 2026-08-04 22:36 | 0x45a22737… | L1 |
KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B270101
strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-december-31 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? |
SELL | 0.370 | 0.530 | -0.160 | $2 | — |
| 2026-08-04 22:09 | 0xd8c18c73… | L1 |
KXFARAGEOUTREFORM-26JUL-JAN01
nigel-farage-out-as-reform-uk-leader-in-2026-20260622233131512 Nigel Farage out as Reform UK leader in 2026? |
BUY | 0.250 | 0.190 | +0.060 | $21 | — |
| 2026-08-04 21:34 | 0x98070e36… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T1
will-1-fed-rate-cut-happen-in-2026 Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.070 | 0.123 | -0.053 | $0 | 2295m |
| 2026-08-04 20:59 | 0xbd14da50… | L1 |
GOVPARTYWI-26-D
will-the-democrats-win-the-wisconsin-governor-race-in-2026 Will the Democrats win the Wisconsin governor race in 2026? |
BUY | 0.550 | 0.450 | +0.100 | $25 | — |
| 2026-08-04 20:52 | 0x45a22737… | L1 |
KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B270101
strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-december-31 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? |
SELL | 0.360 | 0.520 | -0.160 | $1 | — |
| 2026-08-04 20:50 | 0x832bbb89… | L1 |
KXCBDECISIONJAPAN-26SEP17-H25
will-the-bank-of-japan-announce-a-25-bps-increase-at-the-september-2026-meeting-20260616223724870 Will the Bank of Japan announce a 25 bps increase at the September 2026 meeting? |
SELL | 0.380 | 0.450 | -0.070 | $19 | 51m |
| 2026-08-04 20:47 | 0x21ffd2b7… | L1 |
KXGOOGLESEARCH-MOV27-ODY
will-the-odyssey-be-the-1-searched-movie-on-google-this-year-20260730181459216 Will The Odyssey be the #1 searched movie on Google this year? |
BUY | 0.570 | 0.450 | +0.120 | $0 | 2025m |
| 2026-08-04 20:46 | 0x21ffd2b7… | L1 |
KXGOOGLESEARCH-MOV27-ODY
will-the-odyssey-be-the-1-searched-movie-on-google-this-year-20260730181459216 Will The Odyssey be the #1 searched movie on Google this year? |
BUY | 0.570 | 0.450 | +0.120 | $17 | 2037m |
| 2026-08-04 20:46 | 0x7803ddf6… | L1 |
KXGOOGLESEARCH-MOV27-ODY
will-the-odyssey-be-the-1-searched-movie-on-google-this-year-20260730181459216 Will The Odyssey be the #1 searched movie on Google this year? |
BUY | 0.570 | 0.450 | +0.120 | $11 | 2037m |
| 2026-08-04 20:46 | 0x7803ddf6… | L1 |
KXGOOGLESEARCH-MOV27-ODY
will-the-odyssey-be-the-1-searched-movie-on-google-this-year-20260730181459216 Will The Odyssey be the #1 searched movie on Google this year? |
BUY | 0.580 | 0.450 | +0.130 | $29 | 2037m |
| 2026-08-04 20:38 | 0x832bbb89… | L1 |
KXCBDECISIONJAPAN-26SEP17-H25
will-the-bank-of-japan-announce-a-25-bps-increase-at-the-september-2026-meeting-20260616223724870 Will the Bank of Japan announce a 25 bps increase at the September 2026 meeting? |
SELL | 0.380 | 0.430 | -0.050 | $4 | 62m |
| 2026-08-04 20:22 | 0x45a22737… | L1 |
KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B270101
strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-december-31 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? |
SELL | 0.370 | 0.520 | -0.150 | $127 | — |
| 2026-08-04 20:12 | 0x21ffd2b7… | L1 |
SENATEME-26-D
will-the-democrats-win-the-maine-senate-race-in-2026 Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026? |
SELL | 0.330 | 0.640 | -0.310 | $41 | — |
| 2026-08-04 19:11 | 0xcca90a5d… | L1 |
KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B270101
strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-december-31 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? |
SELL | 0.380 | 0.540 | -0.160 | $5138 | — |
| 2026-08-04 19:09 | 0x166a4969… | L1 |
KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B270101
strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-december-31 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? |
SELL | 0.380 | 0.540 | -0.160 | $532 | — |
| 2026-08-04 19:03 | 0xe2349595… | L1 |
KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B270101
strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-december-31 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? |
SELL | 0.390 | 0.530 | -0.140 | $1576 | — |
| 2026-08-04 17:51 | 0x832bbb89… | L1 |
KXCBDECISIONJAPAN-26SEP17-H25
will-the-bank-of-japan-announce-a-25-bps-increase-at-the-september-2026-meeting-20260616223724870 Will the Bank of Japan announce a 25 bps increase at the September 2026 meeting? |
SELL | 0.380 | 0.420 | -0.040 | $19 | 0m |
| 2026-08-04 16:53 | 0x87287f64… | L1 |
KXCBDISRAEL-26AUG31-HOLD
will-the-bank-of-israel-hold-at-the-august-2026-meeting Will the Bank of Israel hold at the August 2026 meeting? |
SELL | 0.770 | 0.800 | -0.030 | $3 | 0m |
| 2026-08-04 16:53 | 0x87287f64… | L1 |
KXCBDISRAEL-26AUG31-HOLD
will-the-bank-of-israel-hold-at-the-august-2026-meeting Will the Bank of Israel hold at the August 2026 meeting? |
0.500 | 0.800 | -0.300 | $4 | — | |
| 2026-08-04 16:53 | 0x87287f64… | L1 |
KXCBDISRAEL-26AUG31-HOLD
will-the-bank-of-israel-hold-at-the-august-2026-meeting Will the Bank of Israel hold at the August 2026 meeting? |
SELL | 0.770 | 0.800 | -0.030 | $3 | 0m |
| 2026-08-04 16:53 | 0x87287f64… | L1 |
KXCBDISRAEL-26AUG31-HOLD
will-the-bank-of-israel-hold-at-the-august-2026-meeting Will the Bank of Israel hold at the August 2026 meeting? |
0.500 | 0.800 | -0.300 | $4 | — | |
| 2026-08-04 16:53 | 0x87287f64… | L1 |
KXCBDISRAEL-26AUG31-HOLD
will-the-bank-of-israel-hold-at-the-august-2026-meeting Will the Bank of Israel hold at the August 2026 meeting? |
SELL | 0.770 | 0.800 | -0.030 | $3 | 0m |
| 2026-08-04 16:53 | 0x87287f64… | L1 |
KXCBDISRAEL-26AUG31-HOLD
will-the-bank-of-israel-hold-at-the-august-2026-meeting Will the Bank of Israel hold at the August 2026 meeting? |
0.500 | 0.800 | -0.300 | $4 | — | |
| 2026-08-04 16:53 | 0x87287f64… | L1 |
KXCBDISRAEL-26AUG31-HOLD
will-the-bank-of-israel-hold-at-the-august-2026-meeting Will the Bank of Israel hold at the August 2026 meeting? |
SELL | 0.770 | 0.800 | -0.030 | $3 | 0m |
| 2026-08-04 16:53 | 0x87287f64… | L1 |
KXCBDISRAEL-26AUG31-HOLD
will-the-bank-of-israel-hold-at-the-august-2026-meeting Will the Bank of Israel hold at the August 2026 meeting? |
0.500 | 0.800 | -0.300 | $4 | — | |
| 2026-08-04 16:39 | 0x832bbb89… | L1 |
KXCBDECISIONJAPAN-26SEP17-H25
will-the-bank-of-japan-announce-a-25-bps-increase-at-the-september-2026-meeting-20260616223724870 Will the Bank of Japan announce a 25 bps increase at the September 2026 meeting? |
SELL | 0.380 | 0.450 | -0.070 | $4 | 6m |
| 2026-08-04 16:05 | 0xc602e347… | L1 |
KXCBDISRAEL-26AUG31-HOLD
will-the-bank-of-israel-hold-at-the-august-2026-meeting Will the Bank of Israel hold at the August 2026 meeting? |
SELL | 0.770 | 0.800 | -0.030 | $24 | 0m |
| 2026-08-04 15:21 | 0x56051e11… | L1 |
SENATEME-26-D
will-the-democrats-win-the-maine-senate-race-in-2026 Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026? |
BUY | 0.670 | 0.640 | +0.030 | $4 | 2188m |
| 2026-08-04 15:16 | 0x56051e11… | L1 |
SENATEME-26-D
will-the-democrats-win-the-maine-senate-race-in-2026 Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026? |
BUY | 0.670 | 0.640 | +0.030 | $24 | — |
| 2026-08-04 14:18 | 0xd8c18c73… | L1 |
KXFARAGEOUTREFORM-26JUL-JAN01
nigel-farage-out-as-reform-uk-leader-in-2026-20260622233131512 Nigel Farage out as Reform UK leader in 2026? |
BUY | 0.250 | 0.190 | +0.060 | $10 | — |
| 2026-08-04 11:52 | 0xe2349595… | L1 |
KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B270101
strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-december-31 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? |
SELL | 0.390 | 0.510 | -0.120 | $1950 | — |
| 2026-08-04 11:52 | 0x45a22737… | L1 |
KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B270101
strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-december-31 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? |
SELL | 0.390 | 0.510 | -0.120 | $124 | — |
| 2026-08-04 11:50 | 0x832bbb89… | L1 |
KXCBDECISIONJAPAN-26SEP17-H25
will-the-bank-of-japan-announce-a-25-bps-increase-at-the-september-2026-meeting-20260616223724870 Will the Bank of Japan announce a 25 bps increase at the September 2026 meeting? |
SELL | 0.380 | 0.440 | -0.060 | $15 | 285m |
| 2026-08-04 09:48 | 0xd8c18c73… | L1 |
KXFARAGEOUTREFORM-26JUL-JAN01
nigel-farage-out-as-reform-uk-leader-in-2026-20260622233131512 Nigel Farage out as Reform UK leader in 2026? |
BUY | 0.269 | 0.190 | +0.079 | $15 | — |
| 2026-08-04 09:06 | 0x45a22737… | L1 |
KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B270101
strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-december-31 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? |
SELL | 0.370 | 0.540 | -0.170 | $37 | — |
| 2026-08-04 09:01 | 0x21ffd2b7… | L1 |
SENATEME-26-D
will-the-democrats-win-the-maine-senate-race-in-2026 Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026? |
SELL | 0.330 | 0.640 | -0.310 | $35 | — |
| 2026-08-04 09:01 | 0xc3cd1d61… | L1 |
SENATEME-26-D
will-the-democrats-win-the-maine-senate-race-in-2026 Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026? |
SELL | 0.330 | 0.640 | -0.310 | $62 | — |
| 2026-08-04 09:00 | 0x45a22737… | L1 |
KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B270101
strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-december-31 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? |
SELL | 0.360 | 0.550 | -0.190 | $5 | — |
| 2026-08-04 08:55 | 0x45a22737… | L1 |
KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B270101
strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-december-31 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? |
SELL | 0.360 | 0.550 | -0.190 | $4 | — |
| 2026-08-04 08:54 | 0x45a22737… | L1 |
KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B270101
strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-december-31 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? |
SELL | 0.360 | 0.550 | -0.190 | $11 | — |
| 2026-08-04 08:54 | 0x45a22737… | L1 |
KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B270101
strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-december-31 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? |
SELL | 0.360 | 0.550 | -0.190 | $1 | — |
| 2026-08-04 08:53 | 0x45a22737… | L1 |
KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B270101
strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-december-31 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? |
SELL | 0.360 | 0.550 | -0.190 | $18 | — |
| 2026-08-04 08:53 | 0x45a22737… | L1 |
KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B270101
strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-december-31 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? |
SELL | 0.360 | 0.550 | -0.190 | $11 | — |
| 2026-08-04 08:47 | 0x60dcc976… | L1 |
KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B270101
strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-december-31 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? |
SELL | 0.360 | 0.550 | -0.190 | $72 | — |