Paper Trading P&L

✕ clear
Showing data from 2026-05-26 onwards Fresh run (May 26 →)
L1 Total P&L
$-942.86
L1 Closed / Open
1978 / 12
L1 Avg P&L (closed)
$-0.48
L1 Win Rate
60%
L1 Avg Catchup
652m
L2 Total P&L
$-259.00
L2 Closed / Open
28 / 0
L2 Avg P&L (closed)
$-9.25
L2 Win Rate
25%
L2 Avg Catchup
842m

Closed Trades

All times are Pacific Time (PT). Gap at open = PM signal price − Kalshi entry price (positive = PM led upward; negative = PM led downward). Catchup lag marked for historical scans (lag from detection, not from signal time).

Signal Time (PM) Layer Wallet Market Side Bought Sold Entry (K) Exit (K) Signal (PM) Gap at Open P&L Catchup
2026-06-22 00:43 L1 0x8a98109f… KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?
NO 2026-06-22 00:53 2026-06-22 00:54 0.964 0.917 0.920 -0.044 $+4.70 1m
2026-06-22 00:43 L1 0x8a98109f… KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?
NO 2026-06-22 00:53 2026-06-22 00:54 0.964 0.917 0.920 -0.044 $+4.70 1m
2026-06-22 00:45 L1 0x8a98109f… KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?
NO 2026-06-22 00:53 2026-06-22 00:54 0.964 0.917 0.920 -0.044 $+4.70 1m
2026-06-22 00:40 L1 0xb687f004… KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T1
will-1-fed-rate-cut-happen-in-2026
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?
NO 2026-06-22 00:53 2026-06-22 00:54 0.179 0.158 0.140 -0.039 $+2.10 1m
2026-06-21 17:57 L1 0x8db4f2bc… KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T1
will-1-fed-rate-cut-happen-in-2026
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?
NO 2026-06-21 18:09 2026-06-22 00:33 0.188 0.121 0.130 -0.058 $+3.35 384m
2026-06-21 17:57 L1 0xac4a1fab… KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T1
will-1-fed-rate-cut-happen-in-2026
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?
NO 2026-06-21 18:09 2026-06-22 00:33 0.188 0.121 0.130 -0.058 $+3.35 384m
2026-06-21 02:43 L1 0xa6dcc89a… KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?
NO 2026-06-21 02:51 2026-06-22 00:33 0.680 0.320 0.340 -0.340 $+18.00 1302m
2026-06-21 23:21 L1 0xcd1d7d84… KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?
YES 2026-06-21 23:29 2026-06-22 00:31 0.500 0.270 0.589 +0.089 $-23.00 62m
2026-06-21 23:17 L1 0xb40e8967… KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?
YES 2026-06-21 23:29 2026-06-22 00:31 0.500 0.270 0.550 +0.050 $-23.00 62m
2026-06-21 23:56 L1 0xac4a1fab… KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?
YES 2026-06-22 00:03 2026-06-22 00:30 0.500 0.270 0.530 +0.030 $-11.50 27m
2026-06-21 23:43 L1 0xb40e8967… KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?
YES 2026-06-21 23:52 2026-06-22 00:29 0.500 0.270 0.540 +0.040 $-23.00 37m
2026-06-21 23:43 L1 0xb40e8967… KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?
YES 2026-06-21 23:52 2026-06-22 00:29 0.500 0.270 0.540 +0.040 $-23.00 37m
2026-06-21 23:43 L1 0xb40e8967… KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?
YES 2026-06-21 23:52 2026-06-22 00:29 0.500 0.270 0.540 +0.040 $-23.00 37m
2026-06-21 15:29 L1 0xaf15bf51… KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?
NO 2026-06-21 15:39 2026-06-22 00:23 0.560 0.430 0.450 -0.110 $+13.00 524m
2026-06-21 23:17 L1 0x21ffd2b7… KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?
NO 2026-06-21 23:29 2026-06-22 00:21 0.490 0.430 0.450 -0.040 $+6.00 52m
2026-06-21 23:12 L1 0x7e80049e… KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?
NO 2026-06-21 23:19 2026-06-22 00:21 0.530 0.430 0.440 -0.090 $+10.00 62m
2026-06-22 00:04 L1 0xb687f004… KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T1
will-1-fed-rate-cut-happen-in-2026
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?
NO 2026-06-22 00:13 2026-06-22 00:14 0.188 0.155 0.140 -0.048 $+1.65 1m
2026-06-21 23:50 L1 0xb687f004… KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T1
will-1-fed-rate-cut-happen-in-2026
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?
NO 2026-06-22 00:03 2026-06-22 00:03 0.188 0.155 0.140 -0.048 $+1.65 1m
2026-06-21 23:31 L1 0x21ffd2b7… KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?
NO 2026-06-21 23:41 2026-06-22 00:03 0.510 0.470 0.460 -0.050 $+4.00 22m
2026-06-21 23:33 L1 0x21ffd2b7… KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?
NO 2026-06-21 23:41 2026-06-22 00:03 0.510 0.470 0.460 -0.050 $+4.00 22m
2026-06-21 21:38 L1 0xc8ab97a9… KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?
NO 2026-06-21 21:49 2026-06-21 23:21 0.925 0.890 0.880 -0.045 $+0.88 92m
2026-06-21 21:40 L1 0xc8ab97a9… KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?
NO 2026-06-21 21:49 2026-06-21 23:21 0.925 0.890 0.880 -0.045 $+1.75 92m
2026-06-21 21:37 L1 0xc8ab97a9… KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?
NO 2026-06-21 21:49 2026-06-21 23:21 0.925 0.890 0.880 -0.045 $+0.88 92m
2026-06-21 21:39 L1 0xc8ab97a9… KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?
NO 2026-06-21 21:49 2026-06-21 23:21 0.925 0.890 0.880 -0.045 $+1.75 92m
2026-06-21 21:39 L1 0xc8ab97a9… KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?
NO 2026-06-21 21:49 2026-06-21 23:21 0.925 0.890 0.880 -0.045 $+1.75 92m
2026-06-21 21:40 L1 0xc8ab97a9… KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?
NO 2026-06-21 21:49 2026-06-21 23:21 0.925 0.890 0.880 -0.045 $+3.50 92m
2026-06-21 21:44 L1 0xc8ab97a9… KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?
NO 2026-06-21 21:49 2026-06-21 23:21 0.925 0.890 0.880 -0.045 $+3.50 92m
2026-06-21 21:28 L1 0xc8ab97a9… KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?
NO 2026-06-21 21:39 2026-06-21 23:21 0.927 0.890 0.880 -0.047 $+3.70 102m
2026-06-21 21:29 L1 0xc8ab97a9… KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?
NO 2026-06-21 21:39 2026-06-21 23:21 0.927 0.890 0.880 -0.047 $+3.70 102m
2026-06-21 21:33 L1 0xc8ab97a9… KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?
NO 2026-06-21 21:39 2026-06-21 23:21 0.927 0.890 0.880 -0.047 $+3.70 102m
2026-06-21 23:12 L1 0x21ffd2b7… KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?
NO 2026-06-21 23:19 2026-06-21 23:20 0.530 0.480 0.460 -0.070 $+5.00 1m
2026-06-21 23:05 L1 0xb687f004… KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T1
will-1-fed-rate-cut-happen-in-2026
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?
NO 2026-06-21 23:19 2026-06-21 23:20 0.188 0.155 0.140 -0.048 $+1.65 1m
2026-06-21 20:00 L1 0x97520e8e… KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?
NO 2026-06-21 20:09 2026-06-21 23:19 0.570 0.480 0.500 -0.070 $+4.50 190m
2026-06-21 19:56 L1 0xac4a1fab… KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?
NO 2026-06-21 20:09 2026-06-21 23:19 0.570 0.480 0.510 -0.060 $+4.50 190m
2026-06-21 19:56 L1 0xaf15bf51… KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?
NO 2026-06-21 20:09 2026-06-21 23:19 0.570 0.480 0.500 -0.070 $+9.00 190m
2026-06-21 18:01 L1 0xe3e4bded… KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?
NO 2026-06-21 18:09 2026-06-21 23:19 0.590 0.480 0.510 -0.080 $+11.00 310m
2026-06-21 18:01 L1 0xdb1b1251… KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?
NO 2026-06-21 18:09 2026-06-21 23:19 0.590 0.480 0.490 -0.100 $+11.00 310m
2026-06-21 16:56 L1 0x21ffd2b7… KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?
NO 2026-06-21 17:09 2026-06-21 23:19 0.630 0.480 0.490 -0.140 $+3.75 370m
2026-06-21 16:59 L1 0x21ffd2b7… KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?
NO 2026-06-21 17:09 2026-06-21 23:19 0.630 0.480 0.500 -0.130 $+3.75 370m
2026-06-21 16:56 L1 0xac4a1fab… KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?
NO 2026-06-21 17:09 2026-06-21 23:19 0.630 0.480 0.490 -0.140 $+7.50 370m
2026-06-21 16:56 L1 0xaf15bf51… KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?
NO 2026-06-21 17:09 2026-06-21 23:19 0.630 0.480 0.480 -0.150 $+7.50 370m
2026-06-21 16:43 L1 0xac4a1fab… KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?
NO 2026-06-21 16:48 2026-06-21 23:19 0.630 0.480 0.480 -0.150 $+7.50 391m
2026-06-21 16:43 L1 0xaf15bf51… KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?
NO 2026-06-21 16:48 2026-06-21 23:19 0.630 0.480 0.480 -0.150 $+15.00 391m
2026-06-21 16:31 L1 0x21ffd2b7… KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?
NO 2026-06-21 16:39 2026-06-21 23:19 0.630 0.480 0.530 -0.100 $+15.00 401m
2026-06-21 16:09 L1 0x21ffd2b7… KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?
NO 2026-06-21 16:19 2026-06-21 23:19 0.620 0.480 0.490 -0.130 $+7.00 420m
2026-06-21 16:10 L1 0x21ffd2b7… KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?
NO 2026-06-21 16:19 2026-06-21 23:19 0.620 0.480 0.530 -0.090 $+14.00 420m
2026-06-21 15:29 L1 0xac4a1fab… KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?
NO 2026-06-21 15:39 2026-06-21 23:19 0.560 0.480 0.470 -0.090 $+8.00 460m
2026-06-21 15:23 L1 0xac4a1fab… KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?
NO 2026-06-21 15:29 2026-06-21 23:19 0.560 0.480 0.470 -0.090 $+8.00 470m
2026-06-21 15:23 L1 0xaf15bf51… KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?
NO 2026-06-21 15:29 2026-06-21 23:19 0.560 0.480 0.460 -0.100 $+8.00 470m
2026-06-21 14:52 L1 0xac4a1fab… KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?
NO 2026-06-21 15:07 2026-06-21 23:19 0.620 0.480 0.480 -0.140 $+14.00 493m
2026-06-21 14:52 L1 0xaf15bf51… KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?
NO 2026-06-21 15:07 2026-06-21 23:19 0.620 0.480 0.470 -0.150 $+14.00 493m
2026-06-21 14:38 L1 0x97520e8e… KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?
NO 2026-06-21 14:47 2026-06-21 23:19 0.540 0.480 0.470 -0.070 $+6.00 513m
2026-06-21 14:36 L1 0xac4a1fab… KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?
NO 2026-06-21 14:47 2026-06-21 23:19 0.620 0.480 0.480 -0.140 $+14.00 513m
2026-06-21 14:36 L1 0xaf15bf51… KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?
NO 2026-06-21 14:47 2026-06-21 23:19 0.620 0.480 0.470 -0.150 $+14.00 513m
2026-06-21 14:22 L1 0xac4a1fab… KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?
NO 2026-06-21 14:37 2026-06-21 23:19 0.640 0.480 0.480 -0.160 $+8.00 523m
2026-06-21 13:31 L1 0xac4a1fab… KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?
NO 2026-06-21 13:37 2026-06-21 23:19 0.600 0.480 0.510 -0.090 $+12.00 583m
2026-06-21 13:31 L1 0xaf15bf51… KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?
NO 2026-06-21 13:37 2026-06-21 23:19 0.600 0.480 0.500 -0.100 $+12.00 583m
2026-06-21 13:16 L1 0x97520e8e… KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?
NO 2026-06-21 13:26 2026-06-21 23:19 0.630 0.480 0.500 -0.130 $+7.50 593m
2026-06-21 13:16 L1 0x97520e8e… KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?
NO 2026-06-21 13:26 2026-06-21 23:19 0.630 0.480 0.500 -0.130 $+7.50 593m
2026-06-21 13:10 L1 0xaf15bf51… KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?
NO 2026-06-21 13:17 2026-06-21 23:19 0.630 0.480 0.500 -0.130 $+15.00 603m
2026-06-21 12:48 L1 0xaf15bf51… KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?
NO 2026-06-21 12:56 2026-06-21 23:19 0.590 0.480 0.510 -0.080 $+11.00 623m
2026-06-21 22:29 L1 0xac4a1fab… KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?
NO 2026-06-21 22:39 2026-06-21 23:16 0.580 0.520 0.520 -0.060 $+6.00 37m
2026-06-21 22:29 L1 0xaf15bf51… KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?
NO 2026-06-21 22:39 2026-06-21 23:16 0.580 0.520 0.520 -0.060 $+6.00 37m
2026-06-21 22:00 L1 0xaf15bf51… KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?
NO 2026-06-21 22:09 2026-06-21 23:16 0.570 0.520 0.500 -0.070 $+2.50 67m
2026-06-21 22:00 L1 0xac4a1fab… KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?
NO 2026-06-21 22:09 2026-06-21 23:16 0.570 0.520 0.510 -0.060 $+1.25 67m
2026-06-21 22:47 L1 0xaf15bf51… KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?
NO 2026-06-21 22:59 2026-06-21 23:10 0.570 0.550 0.530 -0.040 $+0.50 11m
2026-06-21 21:04 L1 0x93a93d84… KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?
NO 2026-06-21 21:19 2026-06-21 21:19 0.942 0.908 0.900 -0.042 $+3.40 1m
2026-06-21 21:04 L1 0x93a93d84… KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?
NO 2026-06-21 21:19 2026-06-21 21:19 0.942 0.908 0.910 -0.032 $+3.40 1m
2026-06-21 18:01 L1 0xb687f004… KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T1
will-1-fed-rate-cut-happen-in-2026
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?
NO 2026-06-21 18:09 2026-06-21 19:21 0.188 0.155 0.140 -0.048 $+1.65 72m
2026-06-21 16:51 L1 0xb687f004… KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T1
will-1-fed-rate-cut-happen-in-2026
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?
NO 2026-06-21 17:09 2026-06-21 19:19 0.187 0.155 0.140 -0.047 $+1.60 130m
2026-06-21 17:06 L1 0x93fb8127… KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?
NO 2026-06-21 17:19 2026-06-21 17:19 0.934 0.913 0.900 -0.034 $+2.10 1m
2026-06-21 17:02 L1 0x17ed7dbf… KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?
NO 2026-06-21 17:09 2026-06-21 17:09 0.953 0.911 0.920 -0.033 $+4.20 1m
2026-06-21 16:37 L1 0x1c4cd350… KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?
NO 2026-06-21 16:48 2026-06-21 16:49 0.955 0.913 0.910 -0.045 $+4.20 1m
2026-06-21 16:40 L1 0xc8ab97a9… KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?
NO 2026-06-21 16:48 2026-06-21 16:49 0.959 0.913 0.910 -0.049 $+4.60 1m
2026-06-21 16:40 L1 0xc8ab97a9… KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?
NO 2026-06-21 16:48 2026-06-21 16:49 0.959 0.913 0.910 -0.049 $+4.60 1m
2026-06-21 16:41 L1 0xc8ab97a9… KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?
NO 2026-06-21 16:48 2026-06-21 16:49 0.959 0.913 0.910 -0.049 $+4.60 1m
2026-06-21 16:42 L1 0xc8ab97a9… KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?
NO 2026-06-21 16:48 2026-06-21 16:49 0.959 0.913 0.910 -0.049 $+4.60 1m
2026-06-21 15:38 L1 0xc8ab97a9… KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?
NO 2026-06-21 15:49 2026-06-21 15:49 0.941 0.910 0.910 -0.031 $+3.10 1m
2026-06-21 15:38 L1 0xc8ab97a9… KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?
NO 2026-06-21 15:49 2026-06-21 15:49 0.941 0.910 0.910 -0.031 $+3.10 1m
2026-06-21 15:38 L1 0xc8ab97a9… KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?
NO 2026-06-21 15:49 2026-06-21 15:49 0.941 0.910 0.910 -0.031 $+3.10 1m
2026-06-21 15:38 L1 0xc8ab97a9… KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?
NO 2026-06-21 15:49 2026-06-21 15:49 0.941 0.910 0.910 -0.031 $+3.10 1m
2026-06-21 15:43 L1 0xc8ab97a9… KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?
NO 2026-06-21 15:49 2026-06-21 15:49 0.941 0.910 0.910 -0.031 $+3.10 1m
2026-06-21 15:25 L1 0x8a98109f… KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?
NO 2026-06-21 15:39 2026-06-21 15:45 0.942 0.910 0.900 -0.042 $+0.80 6m
2026-06-21 15:23 L1 0xc8ab97a9… KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?
NO 2026-06-21 15:39 2026-06-21 15:40 0.942 0.922 0.910 -0.032 $+1.00 1m
2026-06-21 15:24 L1 0xc8ab97a9… KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?
NO 2026-06-21 15:39 2026-06-21 15:40 0.942 0.922 0.910 -0.032 $+1.00 1m
2026-06-21 15:26 L1 0xc8ab97a9… KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?
NO 2026-06-21 15:39 2026-06-21 15:40 0.942 0.922 0.910 -0.032 $+1.00 1m
2026-06-21 15:28 L1 0xc8ab97a9… KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?
NO 2026-06-21 15:39 2026-06-21 15:40 0.942 0.922 0.910 -0.032 $+2.00 1m
2026-06-21 15:33 L1 0xc8ab97a9… KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?
NO 2026-06-21 15:39 2026-06-21 15:40 0.942 0.922 0.910 -0.032 $+2.00 1m
2026-06-21 15:33 L1 0xc8ab97a9… KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?
NO 2026-06-21 15:39 2026-06-21 15:40 0.942 0.922 0.910 -0.032 $+2.00 1m
2026-06-21 15:33 L1 0xc8ab97a9… KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?
NO 2026-06-21 15:39 2026-06-21 15:40 0.942 0.922 0.910 -0.032 $+2.00 1m
2026-06-21 15:33 L1 0xc8ab97a9… KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?
NO 2026-06-21 15:39 2026-06-21 15:40 0.942 0.922 0.910 -0.032 $+2.00 1m
2026-06-21 13:36 L1 0x97520e8e… KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?
NO 2026-06-21 13:47 2026-06-21 15:34 0.640 0.520 0.500 -0.140 $+12.00 107m
2026-06-21 14:57 L1 0xcb59ea1b… KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?
NO 2026-06-21 15:17 2026-06-21 15:17 0.946 0.904 0.900 -0.046 $+4.20 1m
2026-06-21 15:04 L1 0xcb59ea1b… KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?
NO 2026-06-21 15:17 2026-06-21 15:17 0.946 0.904 0.900 -0.046 $+4.20 1m
2026-06-21 15:12 L1 0x8a98109f… KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?
NO 2026-06-21 15:17 2026-06-21 15:17 0.944 0.904 0.900 -0.044 $+4.00 1m
2026-06-21 14:24 L1 0x506f3851… KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?
NO 2026-06-21 14:37 2026-06-21 14:41 0.620 0.540 0.530 -0.090 $+8.00 4m
2026-06-21 14:23 L1 0x506f3851… KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?
NO 2026-06-21 14:37 2026-06-21 14:41 0.620 0.540 0.530 -0.090 $+8.00 4m
2026-06-21 14:28 L1 0x506f3851… KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?
NO 2026-06-21 14:37 2026-06-21 14:41 0.620 0.540 0.530 -0.090 $+8.00 4m
2026-06-21 12:59 L1 0xaf15bf51… KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?
NO 2026-06-21 13:06 2026-06-21 14:29 0.610 0.540 0.520 -0.090 $+7.00 82m
2026-06-21 12:52 L1 0x97520e8e… KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?
NO 2026-06-21 13:06 2026-06-21 14:29 0.630 0.540 0.520 -0.110 $+9.00 82m

Open Trades (12)

All times are Pacific Time (PT). Gap at open = PM signal price − Kalshi entry price. Current (K) = live Kalshi YES bid. Unrealized P&L = mark-to-market at current bid.

Unrealized P&L (open)
$+17.10
Signal Time (PM) Layer Wallet Market Side Bought Entry (K) Current (K) Signal (PM) Gap at Open Unrealized P&L Age
2026-06-23 06:10 L1 0xac4a1fab… KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T1
will-1-fed-rate-cut-happen-in-2026
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?
NO 2026-06-23 06:18 0.163 0.121 0.120 -0.043 $+2.10 138m
2026-06-23 06:19 L1 0x9495d622… KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?
NO 2026-06-23 06:28 0.280 0.250 0.180 -0.100 $+1.50 128m
2026-06-23 07:37 L1 0xac4a1fab… KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T1
will-1-fed-rate-cut-happen-in-2026
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?
NO 2026-06-23 07:50 0.177 0.121 0.120 -0.057 $+2.80 47m
2026-06-23 07:51 L1 0x7e80049e… KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?
NO 2026-06-23 08:00 0.250 0.250 0.210 -0.040 $+0.00 36m
2026-06-23 07:50 L1 0x7e80049e… KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?
NO 2026-06-23 08:00 0.250 0.250 0.210 -0.040 $+0.00 36m
2026-06-23 07:51 L1 0xfe41328c… KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T1
will-1-fed-rate-cut-happen-in-2026
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?
NO 2026-06-23 08:00 0.177 0.121 0.120 -0.057 $+2.80 36m
2026-06-23 07:56 L1 0x277e6718… KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?
NO 2026-06-23 08:10 0.240 0.250 0.157 -0.083 $-0.50 26m
2026-06-23 07:55 L1 0x277e6718… KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?
NO 2026-06-23 08:10 0.240 0.250 0.180 -0.060 $-0.50 26m
2026-06-23 08:09 L1 0xfe41328c… KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T1
will-1-fed-rate-cut-happen-in-2026
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?
NO 2026-06-23 08:20 0.179 0.121 0.120 -0.059 $+2.90 16m
2026-06-23 08:20 L1 0xac4a1fab… KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?
NO 2026-06-23 08:31 0.270 0.250 0.210 -0.060 $+2.00 5m
2026-06-23 08:17 L1 0xac4a1fab… KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?
NO 2026-06-23 08:31 0.270 0.250 0.210 -0.060 $+2.00 5m
2026-06-23 08:17 L1 0xac4a1fab… KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?
NO 2026-06-23 08:31 0.270 0.250 0.210 -0.060 $+2.00 5m