Each row is a detected lead-lag signal — a tracked wallet traded on Polymarket before Kalshi's price moved to match. Gap = how far Kalshi lagged at signal time. All times are Pacific Time (PT).
| Signal Time (PT) | Wallet | Layer | Market | Side | PM Price | K Price | Gap | Size | Catchup |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-27 01:05 | 0xd2aefe83… | L1 |
KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27-26JUL
us-iran-nuclear-deal-by-june-30 |
BUY | 0.520 | 0.210 | +0.310 | $15 | — |
| 2026-05-26 13:54 | 0xc602e347… | L1 |
KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27
us-iran-nuclear-deal-before-2027 |
BUY | 0.760 | 0.620 | +0.140 | $171 | — |
| 2026-05-26 10:10 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRECOGPALESTINE-27-GER
will-germany-recognize-palestine-before-2027 Will Germany recognize Palestine before 2027? |
SELL | 0.078 | 0.120 | -0.042 | $1 | 1m |
| 2026-05-26 05:53 | 0x9cb35555… | L1 |
KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27
us-iran-nuclear-deal-before-2027 |
BUY | 0.740 | 0.640 | +0.100 | $44 | — |
| 2026-05-25 17:54 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.343 | 0.640 | -0.297 | $5 | — |
| 2026-05-25 15:17 | 0x4baf4239… | L2 |
KXMUSKTRILLION-27
elon-musk-trillionaire-before-2027 Elon Musk trillionaire before 2027? |
BUY | 0.952 | 0.900 | +0.052 | $2618 | — |
| 2026-05-25 12:56 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.342 | 0.654 | -0.312 | $12 | — |
| 2026-05-25 12:48 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.342 | 0.655 | -0.313 | $17 | — |
| 2026-05-25 12:46 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.342 | 0.655 | -0.313 | $4 | — |
| 2026-05-25 09:03 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.341 | 0.655 | -0.314 | $0 | — |
| 2026-05-25 09:02 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.341 | 0.655 | -0.314 | $4 | — |
| 2026-05-25 08:59 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.341 | 0.655 | -0.314 | $3 | — |
| 2026-05-25 08:41 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.341 | 0.655 | -0.314 | $0 | — |
| 2026-05-25 08:40 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.341 | 0.655 | -0.314 | $0 | — |
| 2026-05-25 08:31 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.341 | 0.655 | -0.314 | $0 | — |
| 2026-05-25 08:29 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.341 | 0.655 | -0.314 | $2 | — |
| 2026-05-25 07:47 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.341 | 0.655 | -0.314 | $3 | — |
| 2026-05-25 07:37 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.341 | 0.654 | -0.313 | $5 | — |
| 2026-05-25 07:24 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.341 | 0.655 | -0.314 | $11 | — |
| 2026-05-25 06:27 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.342 | 0.655 | -0.313 | $5 | — |
| 2026-05-25 06:12 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.342 | 0.656 | -0.314 | $4 | — |
| 2026-05-25 06:05 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.343 | 0.655 | -0.312 | $2 | — |
| 2026-05-25 05:07 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.340 | 0.656 | -0.316 | $4 | — |
| 2026-05-25 04:41 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.340 | 0.656 | -0.316 | $4 | — |
| 2026-05-25 04:26 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.340 | 0.656 | -0.316 | $4 | — |
| 2026-05-25 04:18 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.340 | 0.656 | -0.316 | $6 | — |
| 2026-05-25 04:09 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.340 | 0.656 | -0.316 | $2 | — |
| 2026-05-25 03:52 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.340 | 0.656 | -0.316 | $5 | — |
| 2026-05-25 03:52 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.340 | 0.656 | -0.316 | $4 | — |
| 2026-05-25 03:40 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.340 | 0.656 | -0.316 | $3 | — |
| 2026-05-25 03:31 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.340 | 0.656 | -0.316 | $3 | — |
| 2026-05-25 03:26 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.340 | 0.656 | -0.316 | $3 | — |
| 2026-05-25 02:43 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.340 | 0.656 | -0.316 | $1 | — |
| 2026-05-25 02:35 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.340 | 0.656 | -0.316 | $34 | — |
| 2026-05-25 02:28 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.340 | 0.656 | -0.316 | $5 | — |
| 2026-05-25 02:28 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.340 | 0.656 | -0.316 | $5 | — |
| 2026-05-25 02:18 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.340 | 0.656 | -0.316 | $10 | — |
| 2026-05-25 02:12 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.340 | 0.656 | -0.316 | $3 | — |
| 2026-05-25 02:04 | 0xc03fd7f5… | L1 |
KXLEADERSOUT-27JAN01-MDIACPC
miguel-daz-canel-out-as-leader-of-cuba-by-december-31-113-682 |
SELL | 0.340 | 0.650 | -0.310 | $34 | — |
| 2026-05-24 23:37 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.341 | 0.656 | -0.315 | $21 | — |
| 2026-05-24 23:31 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.341 | 0.656 | -0.315 | $2 | — |
| 2026-05-24 23:21 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.341 | 0.656 | -0.315 | $19 | — |
| 2026-05-24 22:53 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.341 | 0.656 | -0.315 | $4 | — |
| 2026-05-24 22:33 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.341 | 0.656 | -0.315 | $54 | — |
| 2026-05-24 20:36 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.342 | 0.656 | -0.314 | $3 | — |
| 2026-05-24 20:33 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.343 | 0.656 | -0.313 | $3 | — |
| 2026-05-24 20:30 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.338 | 0.656 | -0.318 | $68 | — |
| 2026-05-24 19:04 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.339 | 0.657 | -0.318 | $4 | — |
| 2026-05-24 19:03 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.339 | 0.657 | -0.318 | $3 | — |
| 2026-05-24 18:58 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.339 | 0.657 | -0.318 | $3 | — |