Each row is a detected lead-lag signal — a tracked wallet traded on Polymarket before Kalshi's price moved to match. Gap = how far Kalshi lagged at signal time. All times are Pacific Time (PT).
| Signal Time (PT) | Wallet | Layer | Market | Side | PM Price | K Price | Gap | Size | Catchup |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-18 07:15 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 |
BUY | 0.630 | 0.330 | +0.300 | $5 | — |
| 2026-05-18 07:14 | 0xde0463ea… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 |
BUY | 0.630 | 0.330 | +0.300 | $550 | — |
| 2026-05-18 07:13 | 0x9cb35555… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 |
BUY | 0.620 | 0.330 | +0.290 | $5 | — |
| 2026-05-18 07:13 | 0x9cb35555… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 |
BUY | 0.620 | 0.330 | +0.290 | $14 | — |
| 2026-05-18 07:13 | 0x9cb35555… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 |
BUY | 0.620 | 0.360 | +0.260 | $1 | 4m |
| 2026-05-18 07:13 | 0x9cb35555… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 |
BUY | 0.620 | 0.360 | +0.260 | $2 | 4m |
| 2026-05-18 07:13 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 |
BUY | 0.630 | 0.330 | +0.300 | $215 | — |
| 2026-05-18 07:09 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 |
BUY | 0.620 | 0.360 | +0.260 | $10 | 4m |
| 2026-05-18 07:01 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 |
BUY | 0.620 | 0.380 | +0.240 | $172 | 17m |
| 2026-05-18 06:58 | 0xde0463ea… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 |
BUY | 0.596 | 0.370 | +0.226 | $606 | 17m |
| 2026-05-18 06:56 | 0xde0463ea… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 |
BUY | 0.570 | 0.420 | +0.150 | $58 | 17m |
| 2026-05-18 06:48 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.301 | 0.660 | -0.359 | $2 | — |
| 2026-05-18 06:46 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.301 | 0.660 | -0.359 | $1 | — |
| 2026-05-18 06:37 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.301 | 0.656 | -0.355 | $1 | — |
| 2026-05-18 06:24 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.301 | 0.656 | -0.355 | $1 | — |
| 2026-05-18 05:17 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.301 | 0.653 | -0.352 | $60 | — |
| 2026-05-18 05:16 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.301 | 0.653 | -0.352 | $3 | — |
| 2026-05-18 05:16 | 0xc602e347… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.301 | 0.653 | -0.352 | $56 | — |
| 2026-05-18 05:07 | 0xde0463ea… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 |
BUY | 0.540 | 0.460 | +0.080 | $1100 | 112m |
| 2026-05-18 04:50 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.301 | 0.658 | -0.357 | $1 | — |
| 2026-05-18 04:16 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.301 | 0.661 | -0.360 | $2 | — |
| 2026-05-18 03:14 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.301 | 0.658 | -0.357 | $6 | — |
| 2026-05-18 03:03 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.301 | 0.658 | -0.357 | $22 | — |
| 2026-05-18 03:03 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.301 | 0.658 | -0.357 | $60 | — |
| 2026-05-18 02:59 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.301 | 0.652 | -0.351 | $4 | — |
| 2026-05-18 02:56 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.301 | 0.652 | -0.351 | $6 | — |
| 2026-05-18 02:52 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.301 | 0.652 | -0.351 | $3 | — |
| 2026-05-18 02:50 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.301 | 0.652 | -0.351 | $8 | — |
| 2026-05-18 02:47 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.301 | 0.652 | -0.351 | $9 | — |
| 2026-05-18 02:43 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.301 | 0.652 | -0.351 | $42 | — |
| 2026-05-18 02:41 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.301 | 0.652 | -0.351 | $2 | — |
| 2026-05-18 02:41 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.301 | 0.652 | -0.351 | $6 | — |
| 2026-05-18 02:36 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.301 | 0.652 | -0.351 | $3 | — |
| 2026-05-18 02:35 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.301 | 0.652 | -0.351 | $7 | — |
| 2026-05-18 02:33 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.301 | 0.652 | -0.351 | $7 | — |
| 2026-05-18 02:26 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.301 | 0.652 | -0.351 | $3 | — |
| 2026-05-18 02:15 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.301 | 0.652 | -0.351 | $2 | — |
| 2026-05-18 01:53 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.301 | 0.660 | -0.359 | $15 | — |
| 2026-05-18 01:51 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.301 | 0.660 | -0.359 | $0 | — |
| 2026-05-18 01:42 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.301 | 0.660 | -0.359 | $4 | — |
| 2026-05-18 01:38 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.301 | 0.660 | -0.359 | $3 | — |
| 2026-05-18 01:28 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.301 | 0.665 | -0.364 | $2 | — |
| 2026-05-18 01:12 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.299 | 0.665 | -0.366 | $0 | — |
| 2026-05-18 01:12 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.299 | 0.665 | -0.366 | $6 | — |
| 2026-05-18 01:12 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.299 | 0.665 | -0.366 | $23 | — |
| 2026-05-18 01:06 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 |
SELL | 0.490 | 0.520 | -0.030 | $98 | 1m |
| 2026-05-18 01:00 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.299 | 0.666 | -0.367 | $3 | — |
| 2026-05-18 00:59 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.299 | 0.666 | -0.367 | $4 | — |
| 2026-05-18 00:59 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.299 | 0.666 | -0.367 | $10 | — |
| 2026-05-18 00:59 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.299 | 0.666 | -0.367 | $2 | — |