Each row is a detected lead-lag signal — a tracked wallet traded on Polymarket before Kalshi's price moved to match. Gap = how far Kalshi lagged at signal time. All times are Pacific Time (PT).
| Signal Time (PT) | Wallet | Layer | Market | Side | PM Price | K Price | Gap | Size | Catchup |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-18 00:58 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.299 | 0.666 | -0.367 | $16 | — |
| 2026-05-18 00:56 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.299 | 0.666 | -0.367 | $41 | — |
| 2026-05-18 00:56 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.299 | 0.666 | -0.367 | $2 | — |
| 2026-05-18 00:38 | 0x9cb35555… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 |
SELL | 0.430 | 0.570 | -0.140 | $26 | 212m |
| 2026-05-18 00:35 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.299 | 0.663 | -0.364 | $2 | — |
| 2026-05-18 00:32 | 0x78048aa2… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 |
BUY | 0.580 | 0.540 | +0.040 | $204 | 263m |
| 2026-05-18 00:13 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.299 | 0.669 | -0.370 | $3 | — |
| 2026-05-18 00:01 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.299 | 0.666 | -0.367 | $3 | — |
| 2026-05-17 23:58 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.299 | 0.666 | -0.367 | $3 | — |
| 2026-05-17 23:57 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.299 | 0.666 | -0.367 | $1 | — |
| 2026-05-17 23:56 | 0x4a2be7a7… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 |
SELL | 0.380 | 0.680 | -0.300 | $212 | 420m |
| 2026-05-17 23:54 | 0x85b8b010… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 |
SELL | 0.630 | 0.680 | -0.050 | $525 | 11m |
| 2026-05-17 23:51 | 0x85b8b010… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 |
SELL | 0.630 | 0.680 | -0.050 | $376 | 17m |
| 2026-05-17 23:51 | 0x85b8b010… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 |
SELL | 0.630 | 0.680 | -0.050 | $121 | 17m |
| 2026-05-17 23:50 | 0x85b8b010… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 |
SELL | 0.630 | 0.680 | -0.050 | $388 | 17m |
| 2026-05-17 23:50 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.299 | 0.666 | -0.367 | $2 | — |
| 2026-05-17 23:49 | 0x4a2be7a7… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 |
SELL | 0.380 | 0.680 | -0.300 | $2 | 425m |
| 2026-05-17 23:49 | 0x4a2be7a7… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 |
SELL | 0.380 | 0.680 | -0.300 | $13 | 425m |
| 2026-05-17 23:48 | 0x85b8b010… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 |
SELL | 0.630 | 0.680 | -0.050 | $1778 | 17m |
| 2026-05-17 23:44 | 0xc03fd7f5… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 |
SELL | 0.650 | 0.690 | -0.040 | $192 | 2m |
| 2026-05-17 23:43 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.299 | 0.669 | -0.370 | $4 | — |
| 2026-05-17 23:35 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.299 | 0.669 | -0.370 | $1 | — |
| 2026-05-17 23:34 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.299 | 0.666 | -0.367 | $1 | — |
| 2026-05-17 23:07 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.299 | 0.668 | -0.369 | $3 | — |
| 2026-05-17 22:39 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.297 | 0.661 | -0.364 | $59 | — |
| 2026-05-17 22:34 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.297 | 0.661 | -0.364 | $14 | — |
| 2026-05-17 22:29 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.297 | 0.663 | -0.366 | $20 | — |
| 2026-05-17 22:27 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.299 | 0.663 | -0.364 | $3 | — |
| 2026-05-17 21:25 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.301 | 0.669 | -0.368 | $3 | — |
| 2026-05-17 19:34 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.301 | 0.669 | -0.368 | $3 | — |
| 2026-05-17 19:11 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.301 | 0.669 | -0.368 | $12 | — |
| 2026-05-17 19:07 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.301 | 0.669 | -0.368 | $8 | — |
| 2026-05-17 16:53 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.299 | 0.670 | -0.371 | $0 | — |
| 2026-05-17 16:52 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.297 | 0.670 | -0.373 | $2 | — |
| 2026-05-17 16:42 | 0x9cb35555… | L1 |
KXTRUMPPHOTO-26MAY17
will-trump-be-photographed-every-day-this-week-511-517 |
SELL | 0.300 | 0.570 | -0.270 | $15 | 2m |
| 2026-05-17 16:41 | 0x9cb35555… | L1 |
KXTRUMPPHOTO-26MAY17
will-trump-be-photographed-every-day-this-week-511-517 |
SELL | 0.430 | 0.570 | -0.140 | $4 | 1m |
| 2026-05-17 16:40 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.297 | 0.688 | -0.391 | $21 | — |
| 2026-05-17 14:46 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.297 | 0.688 | -0.391 | $1 | — |
| 2026-05-17 14:46 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.297 | 0.688 | -0.391 | $0 | — |
| 2026-05-17 14:28 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.297 | 0.688 | -0.391 | $4 | — |
| 2026-05-13 10:53 | 0x5235578e… | L1 |
KXMUSKOAI-26
will-elon-musk-win-his-case-against-sam-altman |
BUY | 0.680 | 0.350 | +0.330 | $74 | 1m |
| 2026-05-13 10:53 | 0x5235578e… | L1 |
KXMUSKOAI-26
will-elon-musk-win-his-case-against-sam-altman |
BUY | 0.680 | 0.330 | +0.350 | $74 | 47m |
| 2026-05-13 10:53 | 0x5235578e… | L1 |
KXMUSKOAI-26
will-elon-musk-win-his-case-against-sam-altman |
BUY | 0.680 | 0.330 | +0.350 | $74 | 5974m |
| 2026-05-13 10:08 | 0x56e3d9a0… | L2 |
KXEUROVISIONRANK-26TOP10-GRE
will-greece-be-in-the-top-10-at-eurovision-2026 Will Greece be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? |
BUY | 0.876 | 0.840 | +0.036 | $3029 | 6029m |
| 2026-05-13 10:08 | 0x56e3d9a0… | L1 |
KXEUROVISIONRANK-26TOP10-GRE
will-greece-be-in-the-top-10-at-eurovision-2026 Will Greece be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? |
BUY | 0.876 | 0.840 | +0.036 | $3048 | 6024m |
| 2026-05-13 10:08 | 0x56e3d9a0… | L1 |
KXEUROVISIONRANK-26TOP10-GRE
will-greece-be-in-the-top-10-at-eurovision-2026 Will Greece be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? |
BUY | 0.876 | 0.840 | +0.036 | $3048 | 107m |
| 2026-05-13 10:00 | 0x9cb35555… | L1 |
KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27
us-iran-nuclear-deal-before-2027 |
SELL | 0.440 | 0.540 | -0.100 | $22 | 14842m |
| 2026-05-13 10:00 | 0x9cb35555… | L1 |
KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27
us-iran-nuclear-deal-before-2027 |
SELL | 0.440 | 0.540 | -0.100 | $22 | 14837m |
| 2026-05-13 10:00 | 0x9cb35555… | L1 |
KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27
us-iran-nuclear-deal-before-2027 |
SELL | 0.440 | 0.540 | -0.100 | $22 | 14831m |
| 2026-05-13 09:57 | 0x9cb35555… | L1 |
KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27
us-iran-nuclear-deal-before-2027 |
SELL | 0.440 | 0.540 | -0.100 | $4 | 14848m |