Each row is a detected lead-lag signal — a tracked wallet traded on Polymarket before Kalshi's price moved to match. Gap = how far Kalshi lagged at signal time. All times are Pacific Time (PT).
| Signal Time (PT) | Wallet | Layer | Market | Side | PM Price | K Price | Gap | Size | Catchup |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-21 21:55 | 0xc8ab97a9… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.880 | 0.923 | -0.043 | $88 | — |
| 2026-06-21 21:51 | 0xc8ab97a9… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.880 | 0.922 | -0.042 | $88 | — |
| 2026-06-21 21:50 | 0xc8ab97a9… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.880 | 0.922 | -0.042 | $88 | — |
| 2026-06-21 21:45 | 0xc8ab97a9… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.880 | 0.922 | -0.042 | $117 | — |
| 2026-06-21 21:44 | 0xc8ab97a9… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.880 | 0.925 | -0.045 | $88 | 92m |
| 2026-06-21 21:40 | 0xc8ab97a9… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.880 | 0.925 | -0.045 | $88 | 92m |
| 2026-06-21 21:40 | 0xc8ab97a9… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.880 | 0.925 | -0.045 | $49 | 92m |
| 2026-06-21 21:39 | 0xc8ab97a9… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.880 | 0.925 | -0.045 | $88 | 92m |
| 2026-06-21 21:39 | 0xc8ab97a9… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.880 | 0.925 | -0.045 | $88 | 92m |
| 2026-06-21 21:38 | 0xc8ab97a9… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.880 | 0.925 | -0.045 | $88 | 92m |
| 2026-06-21 21:37 | 0xc8ab97a9… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.880 | 0.925 | -0.045 | $88 | 92m |
| 2026-06-21 21:33 | 0xc8ab97a9… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.880 | 0.927 | -0.047 | $5 | 102m |
| 2026-06-21 21:29 | 0xc8ab97a9… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.880 | 0.927 | -0.047 | $6 | 102m |
| 2026-06-21 21:28 | 0xc8ab97a9… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.880 | 0.927 | -0.047 | $188 | 102m |
| 2026-06-21 21:04 | 0x93a93d84… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.910 | 0.942 | -0.032 | $172 | 1m |
| 2026-06-21 21:04 | 0x93a93d84… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.900 | 0.942 | -0.042 | $1800 | 1m |
| 2026-06-21 20:00 | 0x97520e8e… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? |
SELL | 0.500 | 0.570 | -0.070 | $0 | 190m |
| 2026-06-21 19:56 | 0xaf15bf51… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? |
SELL | 0.500 | 0.570 | -0.070 | $0 | 190m |
| 2026-06-21 19:56 | 0xac4a1fab… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? |
SELL | 0.510 | 0.570 | -0.060 | $51 | 190m |
| 2026-06-21 18:01 | 0xdb1b1251… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? |
SELL | 0.490 | 0.590 | -0.100 | $473 | 310m |
| 2026-06-21 18:01 | 0xe3e4bded… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? |
SELL | 0.510 | 0.590 | -0.080 | $392 | 310m |
| 2026-06-21 18:01 | 0xb687f004… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T1
will-1-fed-rate-cut-happen-in-2026 Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.140 | 0.188 | -0.048 | $139 | 72m |
| 2026-06-21 17:57 | 0xac4a1fab… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T1
will-1-fed-rate-cut-happen-in-2026 Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.130 | 0.188 | -0.058 | $6 | 384m |
| 2026-06-21 17:57 | 0x8db4f2bc… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T1
will-1-fed-rate-cut-happen-in-2026 Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.130 | 0.188 | -0.058 | $1 | 384m |
| 2026-06-21 17:24 | 0xe3e4bded… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? |
SELL | 0.510 | 0.630 | -0.120 | $10 | — |
| 2026-06-21 17:24 | 0xe3e4bded… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? |
SELL | 0.510 | 0.630 | -0.120 | $2 | — |
| 2026-06-21 17:10 | 0xe3e4bded… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? |
SELL | 0.510 | 0.630 | -0.120 | $2 | — |
| 2026-06-21 17:08 | 0x97520e8e… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? |
SELL | 0.500 | 0.630 | -0.130 | $0 | — |
| 2026-06-21 17:08 | 0x97520e8e… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? |
SELL | 0.500 | 0.630 | -0.130 | $0 | — |
| 2026-06-21 17:08 | 0x97520e8e… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? |
SELL | 0.500 | 0.630 | -0.130 | $0 | — |
| 2026-06-21 17:06 | 0x93fb8127… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.900 | 0.934 | -0.034 | $4482 | 1m |
| 2026-06-21 17:04 | 0xaf15bf51… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? |
SELL | 0.500 | 0.630 | -0.130 | $0 | — |
| 2026-06-21 17:04 | 0xac4a1fab… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? |
SELL | 0.500 | 0.630 | -0.130 | $50 | — |
| 2026-06-21 17:02 | 0x17ed7dbf… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.920 | 0.953 | -0.033 | $4285 | 1m |
| 2026-06-21 16:59 | 0x21ffd2b7… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? |
SELL | 0.500 | 0.630 | -0.130 | $50 | 370m |
| 2026-06-21 16:56 | 0xaf15bf51… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? |
SELL | 0.480 | 0.630 | -0.150 | $0 | 370m |
| 2026-06-21 16:56 | 0xac4a1fab… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? |
SELL | 0.490 | 0.630 | -0.140 | $2 | 370m |
| 2026-06-21 16:56 | 0x21ffd2b7… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? |
SELL | 0.490 | 0.630 | -0.140 | $8 | 370m |
| 2026-06-21 16:51 | 0xb687f004… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T1
will-1-fed-rate-cut-happen-in-2026 Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.140 | 0.187 | -0.047 | $21 | 130m |
| 2026-06-21 16:43 | 0xaf15bf51… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? |
SELL | 0.480 | 0.630 | -0.150 | $0 | 391m |
| 2026-06-21 16:43 | 0xac4a1fab… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? |
SELL | 0.480 | 0.630 | -0.150 | $48 | 391m |
| 2026-06-21 16:42 | 0xc8ab97a9… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.910 | 0.959 | -0.049 | $102 | 1m |
| 2026-06-21 16:41 | 0xc8ab97a9… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.910 | 0.959 | -0.049 | $10 | 1m |
| 2026-06-21 16:40 | 0xc8ab97a9… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.910 | 0.959 | -0.049 | $2 | 1m |
| 2026-06-21 16:40 | 0xc8ab97a9… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.910 | 0.959 | -0.049 | $86 | 1m |
| 2026-06-21 16:37 | 0x1c4cd350… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.910 | 0.955 | -0.045 | $225 | 1m |
| 2026-06-21 16:31 | 0x21ffd2b7… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? |
SELL | 0.530 | 0.630 | -0.100 | $2 | 401m |
| 2026-06-21 16:10 | 0x21ffd2b7… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? |
SELL | 0.530 | 0.620 | -0.090 | $42 | 420m |
| 2026-06-21 16:09 | 0x21ffd2b7… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? |
SELL | 0.490 | 0.620 | -0.130 | $8 | 420m |
| 2026-06-21 15:43 | 0xc8ab97a9… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.910 | 0.941 | -0.031 | $300 | 1m |