Each row is a detected lead-lag signal — a tracked wallet traded on Polymarket before Kalshi's price moved to match. Gap = how far Kalshi lagged at signal time. All times are Pacific Time (PT).
| Signal Time (PT) | Wallet | Layer | Market | Side | PM Price | K Price | Gap | Size | Catchup |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-06 00:56 | 0x4c4ed674… | L1 |
SENATEME-26-R
will-the-republicans-win-the-maine-senate-race-in-2026 Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026? |
SELL | 0.320 | 0.370 | -0.050 | $156 | — |
| 2026-08-06 00:39 | 0xc3cd1d61… | L1 |
SENATEMI-26-R
will-the-republicans-win-the-michigan-senate-race-in-2026 Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026? |
BUY | 0.590 | 0.420 | +0.170 | $1 | — |
| 2026-08-06 00:21 | 0xc3cd1d61… | L1 |
SENATEMI-26-R
will-the-republicans-win-the-michigan-senate-race-in-2026 Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026? |
BUY | 0.590 | 0.420 | +0.170 | $6 | — |
| 2026-08-06 00:18 | 0xc3cd1d61… | L1 |
SENATEMI-26-R
will-the-republicans-win-the-michigan-senate-race-in-2026 Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026? |
BUY | 0.590 | 0.420 | +0.170 | $14 | — |
| 2026-08-05 23:53 | 0xabbf1484… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T1
will-1-fed-rate-cut-happen-in-2026 Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.090 | 0.125 | -0.035 | $0 | — |
| 2026-08-05 23:41 | 0x3089e1a6… | L1 |
KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B270101
strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-december-31 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? |
SELL | 0.380 | 0.530 | -0.150 | $221 | — |
| 2026-08-05 23:06 | 0xc3cd1d61… | L1 |
SENATEMI-26-D
will-the-democrats-win-the-michigan-senate-race-in-2026 Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026? |
SELL | 0.400 | 0.590 | -0.190 | $2 | — |
| 2026-08-05 23:05 | 0xabbf1484… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T1
will-1-fed-rate-cut-happen-in-2026 Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.090 | 0.125 | -0.035 | $0 | — |
| 2026-08-05 22:53 | 0xc3cd1d61… | L1 |
SENATEMI-26-D
will-the-democrats-win-the-michigan-senate-race-in-2026 Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026? |
SELL | 0.400 | 0.590 | -0.190 | $2 | — |
| 2026-08-05 22:37 | 0xc3cd1d61… | L1 |
SENATEMI-26-D
will-the-democrats-win-the-michigan-senate-race-in-2026 Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026? |
SELL | 0.400 | 0.590 | -0.190 | $2 | — |
| 2026-08-05 22:29 | 0xe94bf89e… | L1 |
KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B270101
strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-december-31 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? |
SELL | 0.380 | 0.530 | -0.150 | $152 | — |
| 2026-08-05 22:23 | 0xabbf1484… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T1
will-1-fed-rate-cut-happen-in-2026 Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.090 | 0.120 | -0.030 | $0 | — |
| 2026-08-05 22:21 | 0xe94bf89e… | L1 |
KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B270101
strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-december-31 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? |
SELL | 0.380 | 0.530 | -0.150 | $316 | — |
| 2026-08-05 22:16 | 0xabbf1484… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T1
will-1-fed-rate-cut-happen-in-2026 Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.090 | 0.122 | -0.032 | $0 | — |
| 2026-08-05 21:52 | 0xc3cd1d61… | L1 |
SENATEMI-26-D
will-the-democrats-win-the-michigan-senate-race-in-2026 Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026? |
SELL | 0.400 | 0.590 | -0.190 | $1 | — |
| 2026-08-05 21:48 | 0xc3cd1d61… | L1 |
SENATEMI-26-D
will-the-democrats-win-the-michigan-senate-race-in-2026 Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026? |
SELL | 0.400 | 0.590 | -0.190 | $2 | — |
| 2026-08-05 21:35 | 0xc3cd1d61… | L1 |
SENATEMI-26-D
will-the-democrats-win-the-michigan-senate-race-in-2026 Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026? |
SELL | 0.400 | 0.590 | -0.190 | $17 | — |
| 2026-08-05 21:33 | 0xc3cd1d61… | L1 |
SENATEMI-26-D
will-the-democrats-win-the-michigan-senate-race-in-2026 Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026? |
SELL | 0.400 | 0.590 | -0.190 | $2 | — |
| 2026-08-05 21:33 | 0xabbf1484… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T1
will-1-fed-rate-cut-happen-in-2026 Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.090 | 0.121 | -0.031 | $0 | 843m |
| 2026-08-05 21:12 | 0xabbf1484… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T1
will-1-fed-rate-cut-happen-in-2026 Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.090 | 0.120 | -0.030 | $0 | 874m |
| 2026-08-05 21:06 | 0xabbf1484… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T1
will-1-fed-rate-cut-happen-in-2026 Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.090 | 0.120 | -0.030 | $0 | 874m |
| 2026-08-05 21:03 | 0xabbf1484… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T1
will-1-fed-rate-cut-happen-in-2026 Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.090 | 0.120 | -0.030 | $1 | 874m |
| 2026-08-05 21:00 | 0xabbf1484… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T1
will-1-fed-rate-cut-happen-in-2026 Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.090 | 0.121 | -0.031 | $0 | 889m |
| 2026-08-05 20:54 | 0x1ec6d955… | L1 |
KXGOOGLESEARCH-MOV27-ODY
will-the-odyssey-be-the-1-searched-movie-on-google-this-year-20260730181459216 Will The Odyssey be the #1 searched movie on Google this year? |
SELL | 0.430 | 0.460 | -0.030 | $0 | 0m |
| 2026-08-05 20:54 | 0xffeafb3a… | L1 |
KXGOOGLESEARCH-MOV27-ODY
will-the-odyssey-be-the-1-searched-movie-on-google-this-year-20260730181459216 Will The Odyssey be the #1 searched movie on Google this year? |
SELL | 0.430 | 0.460 | -0.030 | $0 | 0m |
| 2026-08-05 20:53 | 0x1ec6d955… | L1 |
KXGOOGLESEARCH-MOV27-ODY
will-the-odyssey-be-the-1-searched-movie-on-google-this-year-20260730181459216 Will The Odyssey be the #1 searched movie on Google this year? |
SELL | 0.430 | 0.460 | -0.030 | $0 | 0m |
| 2026-08-05 20:53 | 0xffeafb3a… | L1 |
KXGOOGLESEARCH-MOV27-ODY
will-the-odyssey-be-the-1-searched-movie-on-google-this-year-20260730181459216 Will The Odyssey be the #1 searched movie on Google this year? |
SELL | 0.430 | 0.460 | -0.030 | $0 | 0m |
| 2026-08-05 20:44 | 0xabbf1484… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T1
will-1-fed-rate-cut-happen-in-2026 Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.090 | 0.121 | -0.031 | $150 | 904m |
| 2026-08-05 20:44 | 0xabbf1484… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T1
will-1-fed-rate-cut-happen-in-2026 Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.090 | 0.121 | -0.031 | $0 | 904m |
| 2026-08-05 20:43 | 0xabbf1484… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T1
will-1-fed-rate-cut-happen-in-2026 Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.090 | 0.121 | -0.031 | $50 | 904m |
| 2026-08-05 15:58 | 0x21ffd2b7… | L1 |
KXCBDECISIONJAPAN-26SEP17-H25
will-the-bank-of-japan-announce-a-25-bps-increase-at-the-september-2026-meeting-20260616223724870 Will the Bank of Japan announce a 25 bps increase at the September 2026 meeting? |
SELL | 0.390 | 0.430 | -0.040 | $8 | 0m |
| 2026-08-05 15:58 | 0x511f9c77… | L1 |
KXCBDECISIONJAPAN-26SEP17-H25
will-the-bank-of-japan-announce-a-25-bps-increase-at-the-september-2026-meeting-20260616223724870 Will the Bank of Japan announce a 25 bps increase at the September 2026 meeting? |
SELL | 0.390 | 0.430 | -0.040 | $8 | 0m |
| 2026-08-05 15:34 | 0x03e676e8… | L1 |
SENATEMI-26-R
will-the-republicans-win-the-michigan-senate-race-in-2026 Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026? |
BUY | 0.590 | 0.420 | +0.170 | $1 | — |
| 2026-08-05 15:29 | 0xfd076a68… | L1 |
SENATEMI-26-R
will-the-republicans-win-the-michigan-senate-race-in-2026 Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026? |
BUY | 0.590 | 0.420 | +0.170 | $353 | — |
| 2026-08-05 14:31 | 0x45a22737… | L1 |
KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B270101
strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-december-31 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? |
SELL | 0.380 | 0.530 | -0.150 | $0 | — |
| 2026-08-05 14:30 | 0x45a22737… | L1 |
KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B270101
strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-december-31 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? |
SELL | 0.380 | 0.530 | -0.150 | $0 | — |
| 2026-08-05 14:30 | 0x45a22737… | L1 |
KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B270101
strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-december-31 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? |
SELL | 0.380 | 0.530 | -0.150 | $5 | — |
| 2026-08-05 14:15 | 0x45a22737… | L1 |
KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B270101
strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-december-31 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? |
SELL | 0.380 | 0.530 | -0.150 | $1 | — |
| 2026-08-05 13:46 | 0xe94bf89e… | L1 |
KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B270101
strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-december-31 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? |
SELL | 0.380 | 0.530 | -0.150 | $626 | — |
| 2026-08-05 13:43 | 0xe94bf89e… | L1 |
KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B270101
strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-december-31 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? |
SELL | 0.380 | 0.520 | -0.140 | $608 | — |
| 2026-08-05 13:00 | 0x45a22737… | L1 |
KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B270101
strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-december-31 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? |
SELL | 0.380 | 0.510 | -0.130 | $15 | — |
| 2026-08-05 12:31 | 0x328dc4b8… | L1 |
KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B270101
strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-december-31 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? |
SELL | 0.400 | 0.510 | -0.110 | $1907 | — |
| 2026-08-05 12:28 | 0x011f2d37… | L1 |
SENATEMI-26-R
will-the-republicans-win-the-michigan-senate-race-in-2026 Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026? |
BUY | 0.570 | 0.420 | +0.150 | $394 | — |
| 2026-08-05 12:28 | 0x511f9c77… | L1 |
SENATEMI-26-R
will-the-republicans-win-the-michigan-senate-race-in-2026 Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026? |
BUY | 0.580 | 0.420 | +0.160 | $870 | — |
| 2026-08-05 12:12 | 0xd8c18c73… | L1 |
KXFARAGEOUTREFORM-26JUL-JAN01
nigel-farage-out-as-reform-uk-leader-in-2026-20260622233131512 Nigel Farage out as Reform UK leader in 2026? |
BUY | 0.240 | 0.190 | +0.050 | $21 | — |
| 2026-08-05 11:56 | 0xc602e347… | L1 |
KXCBDISRAEL-26AUG31-HOLD
will-the-bank-of-israel-hold-at-the-august-2026-meeting Will the Bank of Israel hold at the August 2026 meeting? |
SELL | 0.740 | 0.770 | -0.030 | $23 | 0m |
| 2026-08-05 11:50 | 0x45a22737… | L1 |
KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B270101
strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-december-31 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? |
SELL | 0.390 | 0.520 | -0.130 | $52 | — |
| 2026-08-05 11:50 | 0x45a22737… | L1 |
KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B270101
strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-december-31 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? |
SELL | 0.380 | 0.520 | -0.140 | $19 | — |
| 2026-08-05 11:42 | 0xfe41328c… | L1 |
KXTOPALBUMSPOTIFY-26-BTS
will-arirang-bts-be-the-top-spotify-album-for-2026 Will "Arirang - BTS" be the top album for 2026? |
SELL | 0.120 | 0.150 | -0.030 | $4 | 0m |
| 2026-08-05 09:19 | 0x9f779e72… | L1 |
KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B270101
strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-december-31 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? |
SELL | 0.380 | 0.530 | -0.150 | $8 | — |