Each row is a detected lead-lag signal — a tracked wallet traded on Polymarket before Kalshi's price moved to match. Gap = how far Kalshi lagged at signal time. All times are Pacific Time (PT).
| Signal Time (PT) | Wallet | Layer | Market | Side | PM Price | K Price | Gap | Size | Catchup |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-21 16:43 | 0xac4a1fab… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? |
SELL | 0.480 | 0.630 | -0.150 | $48 | 391m |
| 2026-06-21 16:42 | 0xc8ab97a9… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.910 | 0.959 | -0.049 | $102 | 1m |
| 2026-06-21 16:41 | 0xc8ab97a9… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.910 | 0.959 | -0.049 | $10 | 1m |
| 2026-06-21 16:40 | 0xc8ab97a9… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.910 | 0.959 | -0.049 | $2 | 1m |
| 2026-06-21 16:40 | 0xc8ab97a9… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.910 | 0.959 | -0.049 | $86 | 1m |
| 2026-06-21 16:37 | 0x1c4cd350… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.910 | 0.955 | -0.045 | $225 | 1m |
| 2026-06-21 16:31 | 0x21ffd2b7… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? |
SELL | 0.530 | 0.630 | -0.100 | $2 | 401m |
| 2026-06-21 16:10 | 0x21ffd2b7… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? |
SELL | 0.530 | 0.620 | -0.090 | $42 | 420m |
| 2026-06-21 16:09 | 0x21ffd2b7… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? |
SELL | 0.490 | 0.620 | -0.130 | $8 | 420m |
| 2026-06-21 15:43 | 0xc8ab97a9… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.910 | 0.941 | -0.031 | $300 | 1m |
| 2026-06-21 15:38 | 0xc8ab97a9… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.910 | 0.941 | -0.031 | $957 | 1m |
| 2026-06-21 15:38 | 0xc8ab97a9… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.910 | 0.941 | -0.031 | $1 | 1m |
| 2026-06-21 15:38 | 0xc8ab97a9… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.910 | 0.941 | -0.031 | $1 | 1m |
| 2026-06-21 15:38 | 0xc8ab97a9… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.910 | 0.941 | -0.031 | $182 | 1m |
| 2026-06-21 15:33 | 0xc8ab97a9… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.910 | 0.942 | -0.032 | $10 | 1m |
| 2026-06-21 15:33 | 0xc8ab97a9… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.910 | 0.942 | -0.032 | $145 | 1m |
| 2026-06-21 15:33 | 0xc8ab97a9… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.910 | 0.942 | -0.032 | $91 | 1m |
| 2026-06-21 15:33 | 0xc8ab97a9… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.910 | 0.942 | -0.032 | $182 | 1m |
| 2026-06-21 15:29 | 0xaf15bf51… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? |
SELL | 0.450 | 0.560 | -0.110 | $0 | 524m |
| 2026-06-21 15:29 | 0xac4a1fab… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? |
SELL | 0.470 | 0.560 | -0.090 | $1 | 460m |
| 2026-06-21 15:28 | 0xc8ab97a9… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.910 | 0.942 | -0.032 | $46 | 1m |
| 2026-06-21 15:26 | 0xc8ab97a9… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.910 | 0.942 | -0.032 | $16 | 1m |
| 2026-06-21 15:25 | 0x8a98109f… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.900 | 0.942 | -0.042 | $92 | 6m |
| 2026-06-21 15:24 | 0xc8ab97a9… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.910 | 0.942 | -0.032 | $81 | 1m |
| 2026-06-21 15:23 | 0xc8ab97a9… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.910 | 0.942 | -0.032 | $220 | 1m |
| 2026-06-21 15:23 | 0xaf15bf51… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? |
SELL | 0.460 | 0.560 | -0.100 | $0 | 470m |
| 2026-06-21 15:23 | 0xac4a1fab… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? |
SELL | 0.470 | 0.560 | -0.090 | $1 | 470m |
| 2026-06-21 15:12 | 0x8a98109f… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.900 | 0.944 | -0.044 | $161 | 1m |
| 2026-06-21 15:04 | 0xcb59ea1b… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.900 | 0.946 | -0.046 | $468 | 1m |
| 2026-06-21 14:57 | 0xcb59ea1b… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.900 | 0.946 | -0.046 | $5 | 1m |
| 2026-06-21 14:52 | 0xaf15bf51… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? |
SELL | 0.470 | 0.620 | -0.150 | $0 | 493m |
| 2026-06-21 14:52 | 0xac4a1fab… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? |
SELL | 0.480 | 0.620 | -0.140 | $2 | 493m |
| 2026-06-21 14:38 | 0x97520e8e… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? |
SELL | 0.470 | 0.540 | -0.070 | $0 | 513m |
| 2026-06-21 14:36 | 0xaf15bf51… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? |
SELL | 0.470 | 0.620 | -0.150 | $0 | 513m |
| 2026-06-21 14:36 | 0xac4a1fab… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? |
SELL | 0.480 | 0.620 | -0.140 | $10 | 513m |
| 2026-06-21 14:28 | 0x506f3851… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? |
SELL | 0.530 | 0.620 | -0.090 | $4 | 4m |
| 2026-06-21 14:24 | 0x506f3851… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? |
SELL | 0.530 | 0.620 | -0.090 | $29 | 4m |
| 2026-06-21 14:23 | 0x506f3851… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? |
SELL | 0.530 | 0.620 | -0.090 | $20 | 4m |
| 2026-06-21 14:22 | 0xac4a1fab… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? |
SELL | 0.480 | 0.640 | -0.160 | $0 | 523m |
| 2026-06-21 14:15 | 0xed19489c… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.840 | 0.880 | -0.040 | $33 | 1m |
| 2026-06-21 14:15 | 0xed19489c… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.840 | 0.880 | -0.040 | $6 | 1m |
| 2026-06-21 14:06 | 0x97520e8e… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? |
SELL | 0.500 | 0.640 | -0.140 | $0 | 11m |
| 2026-06-21 14:02 | 0xaf15bf51… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? |
SELL | 0.510 | 0.640 | -0.130 | $0 | 11m |
| 2026-06-21 14:02 | 0xac4a1fab… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? |
SELL | 0.510 | 0.640 | -0.130 | $51 | 11m |
| 2026-06-21 13:36 | 0x97520e8e… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? |
SELL | 0.500 | 0.640 | -0.140 | $0 | 107m |
| 2026-06-21 13:31 | 0xaf15bf51… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? |
SELL | 0.500 | 0.600 | -0.100 | $0 | 583m |
| 2026-06-21 13:31 | 0xac4a1fab… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? |
SELL | 0.510 | 0.600 | -0.090 | $40 | 583m |
| 2026-06-21 13:16 | 0x97520e8e… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? |
SELL | 0.500 | 0.630 | -0.130 | $0 | 593m |
| 2026-06-21 13:16 | 0x97520e8e… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? |
SELL | 0.500 | 0.630 | -0.130 | $0 | 593m |
| 2026-06-21 13:14 | 0xed19489c… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.860 | 0.890 | -0.030 | $84 | 1m |