Each row is a detected lead-lag signal — a tracked wallet traded on Polymarket before Kalshi's price moved to match. Gap = how far Kalshi lagged at signal time. All times are Pacific Time (PT).
| Signal Time (PT) | Wallet | Layer | Market | Side | PM Price | K Price | Gap | Size | Catchup |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-05 08:50 | 0x45a22737… | L1 |
KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B270101
strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-december-31 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? |
SELL | 0.380 | 0.530 | -0.150 | $19 | — |
| 2026-08-05 08:48 | 0xffeafb3a… | L1 |
KXGOOGLESEARCH-MOV27-ODY
will-the-odyssey-be-the-1-searched-movie-on-google-this-year-20260730181459216 Will The Odyssey be the #1 searched movie on Google this year? |
SELL | 0.430 | 0.460 | -0.030 | $0 | 0m |
| 2026-08-05 08:45 | 0xd8c18c73… | L1 |
KXFARAGEOUTREFORM-26JUL-JAN01
nigel-farage-out-as-reform-uk-leader-in-2026-20260622233131512 Nigel Farage out as Reform UK leader in 2026? |
BUY | 0.236 | 0.190 | +0.046 | $41 | — |
| 2026-08-05 08:06 | 0xdb976ec8… | L1 |
KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B270101
strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-december-31 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? |
SELL | 0.370 | 0.530 | -0.160 | $148 | — |
| 2026-08-05 08:04 | 0x011f2d37… | L1 |
SENATEMI-26-R
will-the-republicans-win-the-michigan-senate-race-in-2026 Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026? |
BUY | 0.570 | 0.400 | +0.170 | $7 | — |
| 2026-08-05 08:04 | 0xbd14da50… | L1 |
SENATEMI-26-R
will-the-republicans-win-the-michigan-senate-race-in-2026 Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026? |
BUY | 0.580 | 0.400 | +0.180 | $25 | — |
| 2026-08-05 08:04 | 0x011f2d37… | L1 |
SENATEMI-26-R
will-the-republicans-win-the-michigan-senate-race-in-2026 Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026? |
BUY | 0.570 | 0.400 | +0.170 | $133 | — |
| 2026-08-05 08:04 | 0x511f9c77… | L1 |
SENATEMI-26-R
will-the-republicans-win-the-michigan-senate-race-in-2026 Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026? |
BUY | 0.580 | 0.400 | +0.180 | $228 | — |
| 2026-08-05 07:20 | 0x511f9c77… | L1 |
GOVPARTYWI-26-D
will-the-democrats-win-the-wisconsin-governor-race-in-2026 Will the Democrats win the Wisconsin governor race in 2026? |
BUY | 0.570 | 0.450 | +0.120 | $18 | — |
| 2026-08-05 07:08 | 0x9495d622… | L1 |
SENATEMI-26-R
will-the-republicans-win-the-michigan-senate-race-in-2026 Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026? |
BUY | 0.580 | 0.400 | +0.180 | $20 | — |
| 2026-08-05 06:48 | 0x6d9fc316… | L1 |
KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B270101
strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-december-31 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? |
SELL | 0.390 | 0.530 | -0.140 | $4 | — |
| 2026-08-05 06:40 | 0x6d9fc316… | L1 |
KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B270101
strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-december-31 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? |
SELL | 0.390 | 0.530 | -0.140 | $7 | — |
| 2026-08-05 06:34 | 0x3089e1a6… | L1 |
KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B270101
strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-december-31 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? |
SELL | 0.380 | 0.530 | -0.150 | $380 | — |
| 2026-08-05 06:28 | 0xbd14da50… | L1 |
SENATEMI-26-R
will-the-republicans-win-the-michigan-senate-race-in-2026 Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026? |
BUY | 0.590 | 0.410 | +0.180 | $19 | — |
| 2026-08-05 05:26 | 0x3089e1a6… | L1 |
KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B270101
strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-december-31 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? |
SELL | 0.370 | 0.540 | -0.170 | $9 | — |
| 2026-08-05 05:19 | 0x7803ddf6… | L1 |
KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B270101
strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-december-31 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? |
SELL | 0.380 | 0.540 | -0.160 | $5 | — |
| 2026-08-05 05:15 | 0x6d9fc316… | L1 |
KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B270101
strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-december-31 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? |
SELL | 0.390 | 0.540 | -0.150 | $250 | — |
| 2026-08-05 05:14 | 0x21ffd2b7… | L1 |
KXCBDECISIONJAPAN-26SEP17-H25
will-the-bank-of-japan-announce-a-25-bps-increase-at-the-september-2026-meeting-20260616223724870 Will the Bank of Japan announce a 25 bps increase at the September 2026 meeting? |
SELL | 0.390 | 0.440 | -0.050 | $8 | 431m |
| 2026-08-05 05:14 | 0x832bbb89… | L1 |
KXCBDECISIONJAPAN-26SEP17-H25
will-the-bank-of-japan-announce-a-25-bps-increase-at-the-september-2026-meeting-20260616223724870 Will the Bank of Japan announce a 25 bps increase at the September 2026 meeting? |
SELL | 0.390 | 0.440 | -0.050 | $15 | 431m |
| 2026-08-05 05:14 | 0x511f9c77… | L1 |
KXCBDECISIONJAPAN-26SEP17-H25
will-the-bank-of-japan-announce-a-25-bps-increase-at-the-september-2026-meeting-20260616223724870 Will the Bank of Japan announce a 25 bps increase at the September 2026 meeting? |
SELL | 0.390 | 0.440 | -0.050 | $9 | 431m |
| 2026-08-05 05:14 | 0x6d9fc316… | L1 |
KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B270101
strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-december-31 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? |
SELL | 0.390 | 0.540 | -0.150 | $4 | — |
| 2026-08-05 04:47 | 0xc3cd1d61… | L1 |
KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27-26OCT
us-iran-final-nuclear-deal-by-september-30-2026 US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by September 30, 2026? |
BUY | 0.130 | 0.090 | +0.040 | $26 | — |
| 2026-08-05 04:30 | 0x511f9c77… | L1 |
GOVPARTYWI-26-D
will-the-democrats-win-the-wisconsin-governor-race-in-2026 Will the Democrats win the Wisconsin governor race in 2026? |
BUY | 0.560 | 0.450 | +0.110 | $34 | — |
| 2026-08-05 04:25 | 0x6d9fc316… | L1 |
KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B270101
strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-december-31 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? |
SELL | 0.390 | 0.540 | -0.150 | $0 | — |
| 2026-08-05 04:25 | 0x870535b3… | L1 |
KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B270101
strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-december-31 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? |
SELL | 0.380 | 0.540 | -0.160 | $114 | — |
| 2026-08-05 04:23 | 0xbd14da50… | L1 |
KXCBDECISIONJAPAN-26SEP17-H25
will-the-bank-of-japan-announce-a-25-bps-increase-at-the-september-2026-meeting-20260616223724870 Will the Bank of Japan announce a 25 bps increase at the September 2026 meeting? |
BUY | 0.620 | 0.420 | +0.200 | $25 | — |
| 2026-08-05 04:23 | 0x511f9c77… | L1 |
KXCBDECISIONJAPAN-26SEP17-H25
will-the-bank-of-japan-announce-a-25-bps-increase-at-the-september-2026-meeting-20260616223724870 Will the Bank of Japan announce a 25 bps increase at the September 2026 meeting? |
SELL | 0.380 | 0.420 | -0.040 | $11 | 0m |
| 2026-08-05 04:21 | 0x6d9fc316… | L1 |
KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B270101
strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-december-31 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? |
SELL | 0.390 | 0.540 | -0.150 | $0 | — |
| 2026-08-05 04:08 | 0x6d9fc316… | L1 |
KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B270101
strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-december-31 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? |
SELL | 0.390 | 0.540 | -0.150 | $79 | — |
| 2026-08-05 03:51 | 0x3089e1a6… | L1 |
KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B270101
strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-december-31 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? |
SELL | 0.380 | 0.540 | -0.160 | $9 | — |
| 2026-08-05 03:26 | 0x3089e1a6… | L1 |
KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B270101
strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-december-31 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? |
SELL | 0.380 | 0.540 | -0.160 | $5 | — |
| 2026-08-05 03:00 | 0xffeafb3a… | L1 |
KXGOOGLESEARCH-MOV27-ODY
will-the-odyssey-be-the-1-searched-movie-on-google-this-year-20260730181459216 Will The Odyssey be the #1 searched movie on Google this year? |
SELL | 0.420 | 0.450 | -0.030 | $0 | 0m |
| 2026-08-05 02:41 | 0x6d9fc316… | L1 |
KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B270101
strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-december-31 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? |
SELL | 0.390 | 0.540 | -0.150 | $39 | — |
| 2026-08-05 02:23 | 0xffeafb3a… | L1 |
KXGOOGLESEARCH-MOV27-ODY
will-the-odyssey-be-the-1-searched-movie-on-google-this-year-20260730181459216 Will The Odyssey be the #1 searched movie on Google this year? |
SELL | 0.420 | 0.450 | -0.030 | $1 | 0m |
| 2026-08-05 02:23 | 0xffeafb3a… | L1 |
KXGOOGLESEARCH-MOV27-ODY
will-the-odyssey-be-the-1-searched-movie-on-google-this-year-20260730181459216 Will The Odyssey be the #1 searched movie on Google this year? |
SELL | 0.420 | 0.450 | -0.030 | $0 | 0m |
| 2026-08-05 02:12 | 0x6d9fc316… | L1 |
KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B270101
strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-december-31 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? |
SELL | 0.390 | 0.540 | -0.150 | $9 | — |
| 2026-08-05 01:53 | 0x832bbb89… | L1 |
KXCBDECISIONJAPAN-26SEP17-H25
will-the-bank-of-japan-announce-a-25-bps-increase-at-the-september-2026-meeting-20260616223724870 Will the Bank of Japan announce a 25 bps increase at the September 2026 meeting? |
SELL | 0.380 | 0.430 | -0.050 | $5 | 639m |
| 2026-08-05 01:49 | 0x511f9c77… | L1 |
KXCBDECISIONJAPAN-26SEP17-H25
will-the-bank-of-japan-announce-a-25-bps-increase-at-the-september-2026-meeting-20260616223724870 Will the Bank of Japan announce a 25 bps increase at the September 2026 meeting? |
SELL | 0.370 | 0.430 | -0.060 | $13 | 639m |
| 2026-08-05 00:34 | 0x21ffd2b7… | L1 |
KXFARAGEOUTREFORM-26JUL-JAN01
nigel-farage-out-as-reform-uk-leader-in-2026-20260622233131512 Nigel Farage out as Reform UK leader in 2026? |
BUY | 0.230 | 0.190 | +0.040 | $22 | — |
| 2026-08-05 00:34 | 0x21ffd2b7… | L1 |
KXFARAGEOUTREFORM-26JUL-JAN01
nigel-farage-out-as-reform-uk-leader-in-2026-20260622233131512 Nigel Farage out as Reform UK leader in 2026? |
BUY | 0.230 | 0.190 | +0.040 | $22 | — |
| 2026-08-05 00:26 | 0x511f9c77… | L1 |
KXCBDECISIONJAPAN-26SEP17-H25
will-the-bank-of-japan-announce-a-25-bps-increase-at-the-september-2026-meeting-20260616223724870 Will the Bank of Japan announce a 25 bps increase at the September 2026 meeting? |
SELL | 0.370 | 0.430 | -0.060 | $15 | 717m |
| 2026-08-05 00:04 | 0xa8c63f77… | L1 |
KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B270101
strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-december-31 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? |
SELL | 0.370 | 0.550 | -0.180 | $45 | — |
| 2026-08-04 23:35 | 0xf50543a8… | L1 |
KXCBDISRAEL-26AUG31-HOLD
will-the-bank-of-israel-hold-at-the-august-2026-meeting Will the Bank of Israel hold at the August 2026 meeting? |
SELL | 0.700 | 0.790 | -0.090 | $14 | — |
| 2026-08-04 23:35 | 0xf50543a8… | L1 |
KXCBDISRAEL-26AUG31-HOLD
will-the-bank-of-israel-hold-at-the-august-2026-meeting Will the Bank of Israel hold at the August 2026 meeting? |
SELL | 0.700 | 0.790 | -0.090 | $46 | — |
| 2026-08-04 23:34 | 0xf50543a8… | L1 |
KXCBDISRAEL-26AUG31-HOLD
will-the-bank-of-israel-hold-at-the-august-2026-meeting Will the Bank of Israel hold at the August 2026 meeting? |
SELL | 0.720 | 0.790 | -0.070 | $14 | 0m |
| 2026-08-04 23:32 | 0xf50543a8… | L1 |
KXCBDISRAEL-26AUG31-HOLD
will-the-bank-of-israel-hold-at-the-august-2026-meeting Will the Bank of Israel hold at the August 2026 meeting? |
SELL | 0.710 | 0.790 | -0.080 | $28 | 0m |
| 2026-08-04 23:17 | 0xf50543a8… | L1 |
KXCBDISRAEL-26AUG31-HOLD
will-the-bank-of-israel-hold-at-the-august-2026-meeting Will the Bank of Israel hold at the August 2026 meeting? |
SELL | 0.720 | 0.790 | -0.070 | $14 | 0m |
| 2026-08-04 23:17 | 0xf50543a8… | L1 |
KXCBDISRAEL-26AUG31-HOLD
will-the-bank-of-israel-hold-at-the-august-2026-meeting Will the Bank of Israel hold at the August 2026 meeting? |
SELL | 0.720 | 0.790 | -0.070 | $4 | 0m |
| 2026-08-04 23:17 | 0xf50543a8… | L1 |
KXCBDISRAEL-26AUG31-HOLD
will-the-bank-of-israel-hold-at-the-august-2026-meeting Will the Bank of Israel hold at the August 2026 meeting? |
SELL | 0.720 | 0.790 | -0.070 | $124 | 0m |
| 2026-08-04 23:17 | 0xf50543a8… | L1 |
KXCBDISRAEL-26AUG31-HOLD
will-the-bank-of-israel-hold-at-the-august-2026-meeting Will the Bank of Israel hold at the August 2026 meeting? |
SELL | 0.730 | 0.790 | -0.060 | $7 | 0m |